Prices Soared, Then Shifted – Here’s Why It Matters

I was interested in seeing how new construction in our area has shifted over the past few years, so I decided to take a closer look at the data. What I found reveals some fascinating changes that directly impact buyers and sellers in our community.

If you’re active in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market, you’ve likely noticed some changes in new construction. Let’s dig into what the numbers actually show and what it means for your real estate decisions.

The Boom Years (2020-2023)

If you were house hunting between 2020-2023, you experienced it firsthand – new construction prices increased dramatically. The median price for new homes started at $247,900 in 2020, then jumped to $270,825 in 2021 – representing a solid 9.25% increase. But that was just the beginning.

By 2022, we saw an extraordinary leap to $317,475 – a staggering 17.23% jump in a single year. The upward trend continued into 2023, with prices reaching $347,612, adding another 9.49% growth. In total, that’s a 40% increase in median sales price in just three years, and this wasn’t simply pandemic-related market anomalies.

What the numbers reveal is a perfect storm in our local market:

• Historically low inventory levels
• Sustained buyer demand
• A shift toward larger, more amenity-rich homes

Communities like Preston Lake, The Crossings, and Cobblers Valley emerged as centers where $400K+ homes became standard rather than outliers. Properties gained value month-over-month, particularly during the peak 2022-2023 period.

Interestingly, while prices were climbing, so was sales volume. We went from 113 new construction sales in 2020 to 142 in 2021, then saw a massive jump to 266 sales in 2022. There was a small dip to 238 sales in 2023, but the market was still more than twice as active as it had been just three years earlier.

The Affordability Shift (2024-2025)

The data takes an interesting turn in 2024. While the median price began trending downward to $341,925 (a 1.64% decrease from 2023), sales volume actually increased to a record 281 transactions. This trend continued in 2025, with prices falling further to $326,435 (another 4.53% decrease) while maintaining that same high volume of 281 sales.

The explanation? Builders pivoted to meet actual market demand: affordable housing options.

Wingate Meadows led this shift with quality homes in the low-to-mid $300Ks. More recently, newer developments like Zephyr Hill and Boulder Ridge entered the market with even more budget-conscious options – some even below the $300K threshold, which had become increasingly rare in our area.

Beyond the Numbers: Balance Returns

These pricing adjustments don’t signal market weakness – quite the opposite. After three years where annual appreciation ranged from 9.25% to 17.23% (rates that are simply unsustainable long-term), we’re now seeing a market that’s found its equilibrium.

This represents a market correction that benefits multiple segments. After years of unidirectional price movement, we’re now seeing a market that’s:

• More accessible to entry-level buyers
• Better aligned with local income demographics
• Growing in overall transaction volume (from 113 sales in 2020 to 281 in 2025) while achieving better price equilibrium

For potential buyers who’ve remained hesitant, this re-calibration presents a strategic opportunity. For sellers, it indicates a more sustainable, active market with broader buyer participation.

The Bottom Line

The numbers tell a clear story: our new construction market is finding its balance after several years of unprecedented growth. The recent price adjustments, combined with record-high sales volumes in 2024 and 2025, suggest builders have found the sweet spot in our local market – offering homes people actually want at prices they can afford.

Whether you’re planning to buy or sell in the coming months, understanding these shifts helps you make more informed real estate decisions.

What new construction trends have you noticed in your neighborhood?